Posted by: sweeneyblog | November 5, 2013

2013 Election Night Predictions

This is your chance for guts and glory. Below are my predictions for the results this evening. Sometimes I’m right on the money (I nailed my predictions about the initiatives and national races last year) and sometimes I’m way off (I thought Matt Krogh was going to do substantially better than fellow Dem Natalie McClendon – both pulled even).

So take my guesses with a lump of salt and put your own two cents in the comments below.

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My predictions make as much sense as Twin Peaks

County Council
Barry Buchanan 50.5% Kathy Kershner 49.5%
Rud Browne 52% to Bill Knutzen 48%
Carl Weimer 54% to Michelle Luke 46%
Ken Mann 55.6% to Ben Elenbaas 44.4%

Port 

Renata Kowalcyzk 54% to Dan Robbins 46%
Ken Bell  51% to Michael McAuley 49%
City of Bellingham
Roxanne Murphy 68% to Bob Burr 32%
Pinky Vargas 51.9% to Clayton Petree 48.1%
Initiatives
I-522 – Yes 52% No 48%
I-517 – No 56% Yes 44%
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Responses

  1. What data are your estimates based on? Regardless, I hope they are accurate.

    • Pure gut. Balancing in name recognition, effectiveness of the campaigns, money spent and how it was spent. So, pure guesswork.

  2. From your mouth!!! Except for the Bell/McAuley race. I hope you’re wrong about that.
    Terry

    • Me too. Everything is perfect, except turn the Mike McAuley race around please.

  3. Hope you’re right about the County Council races. Don’t want Ken Bell for Port. Do you really think Murphy will beat Burr by that large of an amount?

    • I don’t want Ken Bell either, I hope I’m wrong.

      Yes.

  4. I think Kathy Kershner’s support may surprise you. Ditto I-517. And I think you may have both Port races backwards. We shall see.

  5. My gut says Mike McAuley will win. 😉

    • I hope you are right and I am wrong.

    • For the record, so do I.

  6. Okay, so you didn’t take me up on my $5 bet. How about bragging rights, then?

    • Absolutely – bragging rights for the win.

      • You’re on!

  7. Hmm. Ben Elenbaas has run a much better campaign, dude. Ken at 55.6% ??? NOBODY gets that big a share. Last time around Ken was against the weakest and most clumsy of the GOP supported slate, but this time he is against a friendly talking buy-local organic farmer with tons of buzz and supporters. Ken may win, but it will be closer, not more of a landslide than 2009. I think Carl is the only “safe” race here, Rud is likely to win, Ken is favored but close, and Kershner has a chance to win so I can’t predict. Bob Burr will absolutely get more than 32%. What on earth were you thinking. Catherine Chambers got a third against Lilliquist, so Dem vs. Dem starts at one third for the non winner, and Bob has coal fear excitement boosting him. I will be shocked in Burr gets as low as 32%. I say Clayton gets no more than 44%, and i say the signature gathering passes. This is the state that keeps voting yes on the 2/3rds cap, remember? Check back to my predictions afterwards !!!!

  8. We have a broom to put up if if our candidates (county and port) sweep.

    • I like that!

  9. McAuley wins despite unorthodox campaign approach!

    • I think that Mike and Clayton both outperform your projections and both win by narrow margin. Narrow meaning make sure there’s recount teams.

  10. Hey, Riley, when I say I hope you’re wrong, I know this isn’t your wish list, necessarily, but your best predictions, and I admire you for putting your political acumen so totally on the line.

  11. It usually work something like this: Over 65K turnout the Democrats start to win. Over 85K they win everything. Turnout was 45K as of 2:30 PM Tuesday (today). In any event, lets hope all the votes get counted.


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