Posted by: sweeneyblog | April 15, 2009

2012 Presidential Candidates, part two

Part two of our Presidential Possibilities

Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota

From Presidential Candidates

Reasons he is running: He has fought tooth and nail to prevent Al Franken from being seated as a senator. This is a pet project of the Republican base, and it has won him quite a lot of attention in those circles. Aside from that, he is very effective at presenting a moderate image while enacting conservative policies. He is in charge of a swing state, and was on the short short list for VP candidates for McCain.

Reasons he is not running: He might not be able to get any media attention if Petraeus and Palin are in the game. Just not enough oxygen in the room.

Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the House

From Presidential Candidates

Reasons he is running: In the 90’s, next was the face of Republican opposition to the sitting democratic president. He was known for big, attention grabbing headlines. Now, with a similar situation shaping up, the GOP might turn to him. He has made a lot noises about running and has the connections to put together a campaign. He is a serial adulterer, but has recently (last year) become a hard-core Catholic and been saved. Very much how George W. Bush turned his partying days (alcoholic, did Coke, etc) into a morality tale with his conversion.

Reasons he isn’t running: Its a lot of work, he is old. I think that a more likely option for him is that his endorsement will be highly coveted and he will play kingmaker for Mark Sanford or whoever gets the nod.

Mike Huckabee, Former Governor of Arkansas

From Presidential Candidates

Reasons he is running: He got a tv show and a book out and is trying his hardest to stay in the public eye. He did pretty well against McCain and that might convince him he has a shot in the primary 2012.

Reasons he isn’t running: His Achilles heel is his fundraising. In 2008, his opponents crushed him in fundraising. Absolutely crushed him. He barely had the money to compete in a handful of states. To raise the necessary cash, he would need some institutional support (i.e. major republican players lining up behind him). With the other candidates already staking out that territory, there isn’t a prayer he is going to put together the cash for a run.

Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts

From Presidential Candidates

Reasons he is running: He did pretty well against McCain, but then again, he dropped several million dollars of his own money to make that happen. Thousands of television ads, lots of palm greasing. He gave good solid speeches and definitely looked presidential.

Reasons he isn’t running: But all the money in the world cannot make you look like anything other than a business man. Mitt Romney is a very successful businessman, and at a time when the American Public is grabbing the pitchforks and torches and marching CEO’s towards the guillotine, being a good looking suit is NOT helpful. He gave it a good try in 2008, but I don’t think he has a shot this time.

I noticed that there aren’t really any senators or representatives on the list. This is mainly because the leadership in the Senate has atrocious media skills (can you imagine Mitch McConnell trying to get people riled up? Its like imagining Mr. Rogers trying to start a fight with someone. He could call them all the names in the book and they would think it was adorable). Representatives just don’t have the high enough profile to make news and the House GOP is notoriously uncreative this cycle.


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