Posted by: sweeneyblog | January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus and what it means

Okay, ignore the rest of the news and I’ll tell you what happened in Iowa and what it means.

First of all, the numbers.

The Democratic Candidates

Obama: 37%
Edwards: 29.8%
Clinton: 29.4%

Everyone else, none existent. What this means is that nothing was really decided. It is still a three way race. The media might try and call it an Obama sweep, but the Clinton machine is going to dump the rest of their campaign cash in an effort to slaughter Obama. It is going to be brutal and ugly with both sides getting bloody. Edwards, well, he is pretty much out of money, having bet most of it on Iowa, so he will just try to hang in there.

Final Verdict: Nothing is decided.

The Republican Candidates

Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 13%
Ron Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 4%

These guys are far more interesting. First of all, this is awesome news for Huckabee. He spent almost all his money in Iowa and it paid off with the solid religious voters there. Here’s the problem, Huckabee does not have any resources in New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina. So he will have to hope the media will give him lots of free airtime. Romney, on the other hand is going eat Huckabee for breakfest. Romney has tons of cash and full operations in all the early states. He will gut Huckabee in an ugly attack ad orgy. Thompson will drop out after he comes in fourth in New Hampshire. He isn’t cut out for campaigning. McCain is dead. Without a strong finish in Iowa and all his independent support in New Hampshire getting sucked up by Obama, McCain is screwed. As always, long live Ron Paul.

Final Verdict: Watch out Huckabee, Romney is going to knife you. McCain is dead and Thompson is asleep at the wheel.


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